PENGARUH INFLASI, KURS DOLLAR DAN SUKU BUNGA TERHADAP HARGA EMAS DI INDONESIA

Abstract

Abstrak

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh inflasi, kurs dollar dan suku bunga terhadap harga emas di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif. Data yang digunakan berupa data sekunder Indonesia dari Januari 2009 sampai Desember 2014. Teknik analisis data dalam penelitian ini menggunakan analisis data time series dengan model OLS (Ordinary Least Square). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa: (1) Variabel inflasi berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap harga emas sebesar 3,68%. (2) Variabel nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap USD berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap harga emas sebesar 0,87%. (3) Variabel BI rate berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap harga emas sebesar 21,8%. (4) Variabel inflasi, kurs dollar dan BI rate secara simultan berpengaruh terhadap harga emas. Nilai koefisien determinasi (R²) dalam peneletian ini sebesar 0,344127 yang artinya kemampuan variabel bebas dalam menjelaskan variasi variabel terikat sebesar 34,4% sedangkan sisanya sebesar 65,6% dijelaskan oleh variabel bebas lain diluar model.

Kata kunci: inflasi, kurs dollar, bi rate, harga emas, investasi.

Abstract

This study aimed to find out the effects of inflation, dollar exchange rate, and interest rate on the gold price in Indonesia. The study used the quantitative approach. The data were secondary data from January 2009 to December 2014. The data analysis technique was the time series data analysis using the OLS (Ordinary Least Square) model. The results of the study showed that: (1) the variable of inflation had a significant positive effect on the gold price by 3.68%, (2) the variable of exchange rate of Rupiah to USD had a significant positive effect on the gold price by 0.87%, (3) the variable of BI rate had a significant negative effect on the gold price by 21.8%, and (4) the variables of inflation, dollar exchange rate, and Bl rate as an aggregate affected the gold price. The coefficient of determination (R²) in the study was 0.344127, indicating that the capability of the independent variables to account for the dependent variable was 34.4% while the remaining 65.6% was accounted for by independent variables not in the model.

Keywords: inflation, dollar exchange rate, bi rate, gold price, investment.